The existent risks for extension more than one year Siilaanyo regime for up-coming elections in Somaliland 01, June. 2016 will affect the stability on the region.
Somaliland’s presidential and parliamentary elections were fantasy to hold from 26 June, 2015 but unfortunately delays turnout for the declaration National electoral commission of Somaliland up to first, June 2016

These were Somaliland’s second elections since has become the power Klmiye ruling party President Siilaanyo in 2010, which led to the loss of the reputation of international diplomacy and forecasting oil riches existing in the country. An expert in Somaliland politics describes the kulmiye ruling Party (KRP) as being in survival mode, because it is really tough going economically… living conditions have drastically declined.’

In such a situation, a top priority of the (KRP) is to demonstrate that it is capable of conducting countrywide elections without any major disruption. It also needs to give the impression, through the smokescreen of elections, that it still has insecure bases of popular support beyond the loyal RRU force-security apparatus that has kept it in power for so long.

For 80-year-old President Ahmed M Siilaanyo personally, winning by a large margin election corruption would be a show of strength. Siilaanyo seized power in an election in 2010.

But awkwardly, in 2011 has been indicted by the Democratization steering Committee based Nairobi (DSC) on charges of corruption crimes for local election against humanity of the civilian shooting in (Ahmed Dhagax) area in capital city of Hargeisa, for RRU security force.

In spite of this, the investigation was still has been recorded and it will forwarded to the international criminal justice consultant for suitable time, when it will be applicable.

The KRP used a familiar
Fund of arbitrary Measure, including
Intimidation and Harassment

By planning Siilaanyo regime to obtain another five years in Presidential office, he will have an entire state structure to continue the worst scenario of corruption that leading (KRP) –including money laundry, National resource, and a foreign donor’s fund that will not serve by the nation. Because of the lack of good governance that can be destroyed the stability of the Somaliland as well as in the horn.

Ageing Mr. President Siilaanyo had previously hinted that he might not run this year 2015/16. However, the KRP unsurprisingly chose him as its nominee for the presidency in late 2014. He has again pledged not to run in the next presidential elections in 2020. By then, he will have been in power for nearly one decade and would be 85 years old, but may still not be ready to leave power voluntarily and so the KRP created conditions to ensure an outright win the up-coming elections. It restricted the political space for opposition parties using a familiar arsenal of arbitrary measures, including intimidation and harassment.

It also tightened its control over an apprehensive civil society, and curtailed the activities of the media. The most vocal opposition party (WADDANI)-SNP subsequently pulled out of the elections in advance.

They claimed that the rules were written in a way that would ensure a KRP will not win in what essentially amounted to stage managed elections.
It should be noted, however, that even the mainstream opposition party (WADDANI) Somaliland National Party has a strong structures, cohesion and far-sighted leadership, along with a clear strategy on how to mount a serious political and electoral challenge to the KRP and Siilaanyo government.

The opposition had made pressure to assure the president mandate wouldn’t be extend after 26 June, 2015 for the coming two years, in which the KRP had planning to won for extension that will force to provide the Somaliland Parliamentary for House of Congress-Senate ( Golaha Gurtidda) to the current Siilaanyo government.

In the run-up to this year’s poll, the opposition repeatedly requested that the elections will not be postponed and demanded far-reaching political reform, which they knew the ruling party would not accept.

Recently, the National election Commission had declared around one year extension. How they will finalize the voter registration process for the Somaliland people.

Even the mainstream opposition party Somaliland National Party ( WADDANI) had strong structures, cohesion and far-sighted leadership
This year’s extension therefore meant that Somaliland voters were left to choose between the

KRP and a multitude of newer, smaller and lesser-known opposition parties, which were able to campaign effectively because of overwhelming public vote and logistical with financial Basis

Moreover, the Somaliland political parties focused too much on trivial issues centred on personal grievances for the government minister’s and was clearly unprepared to assume governmental responsibilities.

Local sources further believe some of these parties to have been created by the Somaliland National Party (WADDANI) to give a vote for semblance of an electoral contest.

The outcome of Somaliland’s elections is not difficult to predict, even if final forecasting results will only be comes out next year after the day of electoral commission has declared on Wednesday, 01 June, 2016. All indications are that the SNP (WADDANI) is assured a clean-cut victory and will take power of the presidency. Indeed, President Siilaanyo will emphatically overcome the other 03 presidential candidates who are unknown to the public.

Many Somaliland people admitted the President Siilaanyo were to lose its hold on power, things could spiral out of control and create more stability, and good governance without corruption and has bright vision that might become of rich for light industrial and growth for economic sector. That could generate a job opportunities for youth of Somaliland people.

At the moments western countries were able to apply enough pressure on the Siilaanyo government for it to conduct more inclusive elections. It seemed they had limited themselves to issuing occasional diplomatic warnings, which had effect the country future. These countries appeared to be fascinated by the lack of survival instincts and power tactics of the kulmiye party.

One sceptical Western diplomat in Somaliland, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that ‘the Siilaanyo will not stick around for a while. It will not be complacent as it realizes that its grip on power cannot survive Somaliland’s electoral shocks.’

Opposition argues that the kulmiye party should not stay in power to guarantee its volatility for Somaliland and region

Western countries also seemed to be not comfortable with kulmiye party staying in power, given that the opposition offers to viable alternative. There are indications that some of these countries might not normalize relations with Somaliland government in the near future.

President Siilaanyo doesn’t understand and skillfully exploited international concerns about the future stability of the Somaliland.

The opposition parties conveniently argue that the KRP should not stay in power to guarantee it’s not stability for the country, as well as for the increasingly chaotic regions of Horn of Africa and the Middle East, where uncertainty and violence are spreading.

The European Union will be declined to fund or monitor the 2015 elections, and openly condemned the Siilaanyo regime of kulmiye leadership already divided and unstable political landscape ahead of the poll. So, President Siilaanyo has planned to a successfully lobbied the House of Congress of parliament (Golaha Guurtidda) to get extension approximately two years.

These teams were more likely to accept for his request and were perhaps perceived to be less severe regarding the fairness or transparency of the electoral process in the future.

On the one hand, the established and better-funded Kulmiye Ruling Party will exploit every opportunity to maintain its long stranglehold on power for as long as possible, and at all costs.

Furthermore, opposition parties will likely continue to expect very much from periodic elections, and will not only seek to undercut the claimed legitimacy of the kulmiye (KRP) using whatever means possible.

They have already started building contacts with International Communities and neighbor countries to without forcibly remove the KRP from power.

As the Western diplomatic sources based in Somaliland put it, ‘There is an uneasy feeling among diplomats here that these elections were a lost cause. It would be better to focus on the 2016 elections, even if it looks like the peaceful way of challenging Siilaanyo power may have run out.’

Somaliland will not have irremediably to miss the opportunity to replace the Kulmiye ruling party (KRP) and Siilaanyo regime with a more widely based government in a non-violent way, and to solve its daunting economic, political and eastern region problems.

Ambassador Abdirizak Diinaari
Independent diplomat for International Consultant of Conflict Prevention and
Risk Analysis for Peace
And Development

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